Yet history suggests that whenever there is a near-unanimous view on what to invest in, disaster follows as firms in those industries lose their spending discipline. The shares of Western firms exposed to energy and emerging markets have lagged the S&P 500 index by over 50% in the past two years. In 2016 it should become clearer whether the present funnelling of investment into tech-based industries reflects a step change in the way the economy works, or is just a symptom of a stagnant climate in which pockets of opportunity are hyped beyond their true potential.
