Developer markets
In 2014 the number of mobile-phone subscriptions will overtake the number of human beings, according to the International Telecommunication Union. Much of the growth will come from Africa and Asia, where getting a phone is only the first step: many millions more people will get online too. India and China will both launch “fourth generation” mobile broadband in 2014, with subscriptions priced well below those in the West, perhaps as low as $2 a month in India.
The opportunities for tech firms are enormous. Yet Western firms will face stiff local competition. At first this will take the form of price warfare from domestic imitators. In China Apple has been pushed into seventh spot in smartphone sales by Xiaomi, a company that openly models itself on Apple and started selling phones only in 2011. Domestic producers now have 60% of China’s smartphone market, according to Canalys, a research firm. A home-grown phone-maker, Micromax, will outsell Samsung in India in 2014.
