an NBER paper*, published on Monday, looks at Russia’s long-term economic future—and promises yet more pain.
Economic projections of this nature cannot be accurate. (Quite a lot may change between now and 2100.) And the numbers in this paper are pretty crazy. The paper claims that a 37% “immediate and permanent” tax hike or a 27% spending cut might be needed if Russia is to avoid future fiscal meltdown. But even in the best-case scenario, Russia's fiscal gap will be 280 trillion roubles.