In fact, we should expect England to lose. Three factors predict much of a national team’s performance: size of population, length of football experience and wealth (rich countries generally do better at sport). England has a modest 53 million inhabitants; its national team has played no more matches in its history than most leading countries; and England isn’t exceptionally rich. Szymanski calculated that England should expect to be about the world’s 10th-best football country – and it usually is. Historically, in fact, England has marginally overachieved relative to its resources.
Alternatively, the English could steal foreign ideas. Probably because they live on an island, they don’t quite understand how to play football. English kids learn the wrong things. Youth academies here have enough money; more than, say, Spanish or Brazilian academies. But English youth coaching overvalues size and willpower, whereas what matters most is passing. As a youth coach at Barcelona told me, “If he’s small or if he’s tall, for us that is not important.” Spain became world champions by borrowing and updating Dutch “total football”. Germany and Belgium bucked recent declines by stealing best practices from around Europe. The English should try it, instead of fantasising about isolationism.
